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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.